Ucimu-Sistemi Per Produrre: The Italian Machine Tool Industry To Close A Rather Stagnant 2025.Manufacturers Expect Moderate Growth For 2026.
After a really complicated 2024, the year 2025 turned out to be rather stagnant for Italian manufacturers of machine tools, robots and automation systems, who saw their production grow moderately. This was slowed down by the export downturn, which was not counterbalanced by the weak recovery in the domestic market activity. The year 2026 will be better, but the forecasts are cautious owing to the highly unstable context. In brief, this is what emerges from the preliminary figures for 2025 and forecasts for 2026 just released by the Studies Dept. & Business Culture Centre of UCIMU-SISTEMI PER PRODURRE.
In particular, in 2025, production stood at 6,420 million euro, reporting a 1.5% increase compared to the previous year.
The year was characterised by a strong contraction in exports, which went down to 3,710 million euro, i.e. 13.2% less than in 2024. Almost all the major markets for Made in Italy products in this sector recorded a negative performance, as a testimony to the difficult international situation.
According to UCIMU’s analysis of the data from the Italian National Statistics Institute (ISTAT), in the period January-August 2025 (latest available data), the main destination markets for the Italian sector offering of machine tools only were the United States (423 million euro, -8.1%), Germany (196 million euro, -29.7%); France (145 million euro, -0.5%), India (135 million euro, -4.2%), Poland (135 million euro, +13.3%).
On the domestic front, the recovery in consumption, which rose by 20.5% to 4,465 million euro, drove the growth in the deliveries from Italian manufacturers on the domestic market, attaining 2,710 million euro, corresponding to 32% more than in the previous year. Although the increases of these two indicators are significant, the results are not very satisfactory because they are still much lower than the values obtained in the previous years.
The export/production figure started to decrease again, stopping at 57.8%.
For 2026, the forecasts prepared by the Studies Dept. & Business Culture Centre of UCIMU show a (still) moderate rise of the main economic indicators. In particular, in 2026, production should grow, reaching 6,590 million euro (+2.6% versus 2025).
This outcome should be determined by the return of exports to positive territory (+0.7% compared to the 2025 figure), totalling 3,735 million euro, as well as by the upturn in the domestic deliveries from Italian manufacturers, which should grow to 2,855 million euro (+5.4% versus 2025), supported by increased domestic demand.
Italian consumption of machine tools, robots and automation should go up to 4,730 million euro, i.e. 5.9% more than in 2025. Imports should also benefit from the recovery in domestic demand, as proven by the forecast figure indicating a 6.8% rise to 1,875 million euro.
The export/production ratio should go down again, standing at 56.7%.
Riccardo Rosa, president of UCIMU, commented: “After a really complicated 2024, 2025 confirmed as the year of trend reversal, with a change from negative to growth, however very modest, recorded in the production figure. Actually, we did not expect it could be exports to weigh down the final outcome, as they did”.
“The international geopolitical instability, the ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, President Trump’s tariff war and the consequent new (dis)order of international trade put our exports under severe strain”.
“On the other hand, the performance achieved by Italian machine tool manufacturers on the domestic market was better than expected, but however, they recovered only a small portion of the ground lost in the previous two years. This was due to the critical issues related to Transition 5.0, which started to be operational with an unforgivable delay, underwent several adjustments, becoming easy to use only in its final months of operation, then suddenly closing more than a month before the deadline set for 31 December”.
“Despite the numerous difficulties encountered – continued President Rosa – the results obtained have demonstrated the usefulness of 5.0, obviously in addition to 4.0, as a measure aimed at supporting investments in new production technologies in Italy”.
“We hope that the incentive measures established by the government bodies under discussion in recent weeks during the drafting of the 2026 Budget Law, will be actually easy to use and quick to implement. We Italian machine tool manufacturers – went on the president of di UCIMU – simply ask for clarity and immediacy. In order to work, the measure must involve little bureaucracy and must be issued and made available from the first weeks of the new year. Only in this way will the measure – which seems overall valid, on paper, as we have seen it – be able to bring real benefits to the country’s manufacturing sector”.
“That said – added Riccardo Rosa – we greatly appreciate the recent announcement of the government regarding its intention to focus on a multi-year duration of the measure. Having a measure available from the beginning of 2026 to 2028 is certainly a wise choice, allowing customer companies to plan their purchases, as well as manufacturers to organise their production, so that they can distribute their work according to their production capacity in the best way”.
“On the foreign front, the weaking of some markets, starting with Germany, which has been overwhelmed by the automotive crisis – the difficulty of sales in the USA, our primary export market, due to tariffs, and the closure of certain areas particularly rich in opportunities, such as Russia, require even more intense work to develop commercial relations with traditional areas and with “alternative” areas, including the countries of the Mercosur region. For this reason, – continued Riccardo Rosa – it is discouraging to read in the newspapers that Italy is among the countries questioning the continuation of the process for the conclusion of the EU-Mercosur Agreement, which has actually reached its final stages. Backtracking now, at a particularly delicate moment for international trade, would be a serious mistake”.
“Also based on this agreement, over the last two years, the Association has boosted its initiatives dedicated to Latin American countries. In addition to exploratory missions carried out in Brazil, conceived to strengthen partnerships with the local system of institutions, companies and representative organisations, UCIMU has started interesting discussions with industrial representative organizations of Argentina in preparation for new collaborations between the industries of the two countries. Moreover, – added President Rosa – we have not overlooked the so-called “associated countries” and “observers” linked to the agreement, as we are confident that these will also offer our companies interesting opportunities. Among the Mercosur associate members, we have focused our attention on Chile where, following a survey mission, a project is being studied to develop a Technology Centre with the participation of local universities. On the other hand, among observers, our focus is on Mexico, where, since the beginning of 2025, the Oficina Italiana de Promotiòn Mexico has been operating as a desk that works to support Italian companies in learning about and penetrating the relevant market, also concerning the area of Central and North America”.
“With regard to Asia, India and Southeast Asian countries are of particular interest to us because they are characterised by very strong growth and a favourable inclination towards us, as proven by the dynamism of the activities supported by the Association: from Desk India to the ITC India Network and the IMT Vietnam Network, both of which have just been renewed”.
“Turning our gaze towards Europe, while waiting to see how the German economy and manufacturing industry will respond to the measures implemented by the Merz government, the hope is that the EU will intervene to correct the timing and methods of the transition towards green mobility, so as to avoid the risk of industrial desertification in the Old Continent. In our opinion, the principle of technological neutrality is the only appropriate response to this situation.”
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